Recap of the little details

Today while watching coverage on the BBC and CNN I noticed that the Russians have placed minefields on the boarder between the Ukraine and Crimea. I realized I haven't been putting enough effort into typing on here what I see everywhere. So here are a few recap points. 

 -Ukrainian recon planes are being lased. In a video I had watched of a Ukraine recon plane that was flying along the boarder with Crimea the troops had green lasers and were aiming at the plane. Sounds simple but When my unit was deployed this was a serious issue when using nvg and other optical sights. Not to mention on the eye ball.

  -Reports indicate that the Russians have moved P-800 weapons system SS-N-26 to Crimea. Most says this is a deterrent to NATO naval involvement. I heard 30 missiles but I can't say how reliable that intel is.

-The Russians have scuttled two old wrecks of ships in the harbor at  Sevastopol to hold whats left of the Ukraine navy there. I personally hope that the Ukraine can recover these ships but I only see that happening in the even that the Ukraine strikes a deal to recover its assets and concede the Crimea to Russia.

-In the last three days I have noticed troops and armored vehicles appear to be "battle ready" in Crimea. Mags in weapons. I noticed rounds in the mags on the tactical vests. I noticed the armored vehicles have the barrel covers off and all hatches buttoned. Truck convoys now have armor leading them. 

-The Americans are slowly moving fighters to all the neighboring NATO nations. I expect to see a large ground exercise in Poland as soon as possible. Last check the 6th fleet carrier battle group had linked up with the MEU in the Mediterranean.

-The propaganda war is being fought as hard as ever. CNN has reduced it's coverage to cover more of Justin Bieber so I have stopped watching that channel. It's hard to follow which side is right when you start watching both sides.

I still believe that there will not be a full on armed conflict. I feel that we are entering into a cold war style confrontation. That or we believe that Putin really wants his name to remembered as the man who helped start world war three.

Latest news 10 March 2014

NATO has announced that they are moving AWACS assets into Poland and Romania. This also looks to coincide with the USAF deploying F-16 and F-15 to the area.  CNN is reporting that Ukraine itself has begun deploying troops to the boarder and has released propaganda films showing it's army mobilizing. There has been some unrest in the Eastern Part of Ukraine. Putin is blaming the west for not stopping the violence there and has made talk of going there. China has been showing support to the west in this crisis mostly because I figure they plan on selling arms there. It sounds more and more like we will start to see the Ukraine become the Germany of old

It's going to be a bad weekend

More proof of the militarization on the boarder between Ukraine and Russian controlled territory of Crimea. amphibious assault ships unloading vehicles
CTV news is reporting that the OSCE observers were shot at as they approached the boarder to Crimea. I think the Russians plan on wiping out the last pockets of Ukraine troops in the Crimea. I have heard reports that Poland, the only NATO member to have an embassy in Crimea, has evacuated its embassy to protect it from Russian aggression. I thinks we will see NATO hold a ground force exercise in Poland to go with new air exercise that the US is holding there. US sending F16s to Poland.
I have also read that Turkey has chased Russian ELINT aircraft from it's air space. That's a pretty standard Cold War tactic to measure response times. I think we will see the USS George H. Bush meet up with the MEU that is moving around the Eastern Mediterranean. Don't Forget the us has a division worth of equipment on the US preposition ships there as well. Prepositioning ships.
Its almost like everyday the temperature ups a degree to push this crisis up but at a controlled rate. I believe Putin is looking to write himself into history as the man would revive the greatness of the Russian empire and saved it from construction by the West.  

There will be blood shed this weekend.

The Russians are starting to reinforce their positions in the Crimean. I believe this is because the Ukraine was going to attempt to either fly troops into their surrounded bases or launch a breakout. With Russia threatening to pull out of the strategic site inspection programs the cold war is slowly but surely coming back. The Ukraine must risk some casualties this weekend or they will loose any ability to hold the region. I understand that they are looking for some sort of partner or alliance to back them if it goes wrong. The only other option is to evacuate. Which is what the Russians have wanted the whole time. Proof that they are still the biggest bully on this block.

Sources:
Russia reinforcing it's military presence.- CTVnews
BBC coverage

Why are we surprised about Crimea?

Both sides need a new cold war. Why do you ask? Take a look at the economics of it. Rumors of an aircraft carrier being decommissioned and the army reduced to 420,000 in the US. http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/national_world/2014/03/07/law-forces-steep-cuts-on-defense-hagel-says.html
 The Russian economy is stagnant and starting to fall. I read a report the corruption in the Russian Ground forces is up 425%. So both sides need a new enemy to pretend to fight so they can spend money on defense. The Crimea happens to be the best spot to become the cold war front. The Ukraine is more split in terms of loyalty then any other post Soviet republic. The fact they just had a change of government by "force" left a very much weakened government with little experience in international crisis management. You have a military that is split on who they support and which set of idols they want to follow. To be honest the Russians have made the perfect power play. The west won't respond with troops since they are licking their wounds post war on terror.
So the Crimea is now Russian turf. But I think we will see NATO or at least the EU send some small forces to Ukraine proper as observers. The border of Ukraine with Russia and the new Crimea of the Russian Federation will become militarized. I doubt we will see the big bad days of the cold war with armies standing on each side ready to move with 12 hours notice. But I think we are seeing a major shift toward Russia trying to exert more of a super power role then just holding a veto vote on the UN security council.